- Anne Hunt -
Still, the air-waves have been abuzz with chatter with, 'bomb Iran before they bomb you' and when you have the 'Open and Free Internet' these days, keeping anything secret for too long would seem...er, TOO LONG!
One thing is for sure, a certain amount of brinkmanship is taking place. Iran is doing what it always does, blatant stonewalling. But whether it is because Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, can not get a definitive answer from the White House as to how strongly they will commit to helping and probably, more importantly, when, might just be the reason why some back-pedaling is taking place.
With the US elections just around the corner no American President wants to face more than one enemy at a time. But timing - or the lack of time, is exactly what counts at the moment. Israel runs the risk of not being prepared should Iran start attacking first, with whatever they have...and that...is probably something no-one wants to find out.
For Israel, it has been a long time coming. The 'I's' have it, but the first letter in both country's namesakes is resoundingly the only thing these old hate-ridden enemies have in common.
Rumours have been fuelled regarding Israel's readiness to go to war with a country hell bent on its nuclear ambitions, even though Iran stands staunchly by it's claims that the need for nuclear power is purely for the Iranian people's domestic use.
However - and one could be forgiven for getting the shakes while uttering this - nuclear power in the hands of an enemy who has made no bones about "wiping you off the face of the map" would send immediate convulsant shivers up anyone's pale yellow spine.
- Anne Hunt -
How many of us in the west really believe Iran when they say they only want nuclear power stations for domestic use?
I can only think of my Uncle Robert, a kindly Christian who has believed everything he reads in the paper - that is, ever since he was diagnosed with senile dementia.
Apart from that, not even the most devote Mullah within 1000 miles of Tehran, who spends 24 hours a day turning to Mecca on his knees, wants to believe the cause for developing nuclear missiles is an absolute and necessary requirement for disposing of 'that' country - the desert interloper and unbelieving infidel, Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel knows only too well, along with every CIA Agent in Langley - as does every spook from MI6 Heaquarters in London, to the Spy Masters in the Kremlin that sooner, rather than later, the Iranians will be nuclear capable and Israel will be the target.
Obama has promised the Israeli PM that the USA would never let Iran become nuclear armed. But, is this a promise Obama can keep? It better be, because it's the only thing stopping Israel from unleashing it's own pre-emptive strike against those deep nuclear bunkers Iran has developed.
Obama's argument has been to Israel that the sanctions placed on Iran by the UN have to be given a chance to work...first. Well, they have worked, to a point, because Iran's economy is in dire straights. What we all seem to be forgetting however, is that Iran has always had a 'rainy day' stash of $billions and it would rather have it's own citizens living on recycled camel fodder than cease its great cause to rid the area - once and for all - of it's greatest enemy.
Netanyahu must surely be aware that Obama is facing his local enemies - the Republicans in a few months at the polls - and any talk of war, or supporting or condoning one in the Middle East, perhaps even helping Syria's beseiged citizens against the hideous Assad, might well be enough to find him packing his and
Michelle's clothes and witnessing them uncerimoniously offloading them on to the White House Lawn come November.
Of immeasureable concern to the Israelis should have been the great support for Ayatolla Ali Khamenei following the recent elections. A man who has the final say on how far Iran will go in it's quest against Israel.
This man seems to have a tunnel vision when it comes to fulfilling what he believes to be his country's destiny, and as
we know when it comes to spiritual goals, such fanatical minds
see their own deaths a worthwhile sacrifice in a greater cause.
All this should be grim news to Obama because in a way, had the elections passed and he had another term, he could afford the luxury of being more aggressive towards a regime that every politician in the USA knows has to be confronted at some point.
Iran is not North Korea, if it comes to the difference in that peninsular between total starvation and saying 'yes, sir, yes, sir three bags full, sir,' over-fed son of Kim Jong Il will not let himself or his people starve - well, possibly his people - and will take the easy way out.
Communism and radical fanatical fundermentalism are as far apart as the two chilly poles of our planet.
- Anne Hunt -
- Jan Mosse -
- Alan White -
- Sam Watts -
Is it about regional domination or world annihilation? No-one particularly cares the reasons why. What one does care about, is that Iran doesn't get what it asks for.
All the hallmarks are there. The claims that the country has a right to enrich uranium for peaceful means only. The Iranian people are deserving. However, if ever there were actions that spoke louder than words, then as we know, talk is very cheap.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report providing irrefutable evidence that Iran has done much research and has experimented in line with developing nuclear weaponry, leaving little doubt as to the deception of their undying claims. The report underlines the need for action in stopping this continued development, highlighting in detail, the activities that Iran's nuclear program has undertaken, with an overview of the IAEA's concerns going back to 2002.
As with Saddam Hussein, with his constant refusal to allow weapon's inspectors in to check for (WMD) Weapons of Mass Destruction, in the end, patience wore thin and the result we all know about. By the same token, Iran has been playing the very same non-committal games and refusing to co-operate with the IAEA bringing deep concerns as to the genuine nature of their true desires as they have failed to report various aspects of their enrichment program.
The Iranian regime’s desire for regional dominance and its ideology, based on fundamentalist ideas, makes its quest for nuclear weapons all the more frightening. This includes a vision of the end to all life as we know it, following a catastrophic apocalypse, due to a radical belief system that places a high value on martyrdom. Then throw in the fact that once Iran gains nuclear capabilities every other country on the block will start to feel inadequate and want to get some of their own as well. All's fair in love and war.
Many officials warn that Iran may only be months away from acquiring nuclear weapons technology, and if it were to succeed could potentially create mayhem throughout the Middle East. Iran has already sworn to wipe Israel off the map. So, with even unveiled threats like these one has to take certain aspects of their redevelopments, seriously. Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi was brought into line by the west and gave up his nuclear arms program and since the end of the Cold War, there have been major changes and efforts have been put in place by the world dominated countries towards nuclear disarmament, especially by the US and Russia.
This peaceful road map all changes if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons, thus accelerating nuclear proliferation and increasing the prospect of a potential world nuclear confrontation.
- Anne Hunt -
- Anne Hunt -
When a scientist disappears in Iran, or in this case, clearly assassinated, what do you do for retaliation? Do you take it on the chin and wait till all your top 'servants' in the field of Atomic Energy are blown into the universe or, do you strike back at the people you presume to be the 'guilty' party.
While the Tehran Government condemned the attack blaming the "imperialist powers" of Israel and the U.S. for the involvement reiterating, "The enemies of Iran should know that they will not stop the scientific progress of Iran with such terrorist acts," said the Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. "The agents of the imperialist powers were involved in this murder."
The Iranian Atomic Energy Agency spoke out saying the murdered scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was "one of the servants of the nuclear industry", without specifying his exact position. "The people of Iran's chosen path of no return, and such devilish acts of the United States and Israel against our scientists will not have the slightest influence," it said in a statement.
However, the Iranian media are calling for blood in the form of attacks on political and military officials of the 'enemy' claiming that international law allows revenge for assassinations. The U.S. however said it condemns the violence and reiterated it had no involvement in the action.
- Anne Hunt -
EU foreign ministers had agreed late last year to work toward such a ban with the aim of blocking funding for Iran's nuclear program that some suspect is designed to develop nuclear weapons - a charge Tehran strongly denies.
The official Iranian news agency IRNA quoted a member of parliament as saying that pressure from "bullying nations" made the country "more resilient".
Several EU nations, notably Greece, are heavily dependent on Iranian oil so an embargo will hurt, and they have been pushing for an embargo to start later in the year, but it seems they have been swayed by a majority wanting swifter action.
China has however reiterated its opposition to unilateral action and stresses diplomacy is the way forward. “China is against one country putting their domestic laws above international law and placing unilateral sanctions on another country.
China, like many other countries, maintains regular, open and transparent economic and energy relations with Iran. These relations do not violate the regulations of the UN Security Council,” said foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei.
Iran denies military intent and refuses to stop enrichment of uranium for what it describes as civilian purposes. But it has responded to the threat of new U.S. and European sanctions with a series of military and diplomatic threats. It has test-fired new missiles, announced the production of its first nuclear-fuel rod, warned a U.S. aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf, and threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, which analysts said could drive oil prices up by at least 50 percent.
Although Iran, which says it only seeks nuclear reactors for energy and research, has sharply increased its threats and military posturing against worldwide pressures, including U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's Central Bank in attempts to complicate its ability to sell oil. Iran is now playing brinkmanship games with human life. Convicting a USA born man, who's parents are both Iranian of spying for the enemy and working for the CIA, thus sentencing him to death.
Iran is living up to its image of being a 'Rogue State.' After striking a defiant pose this last week during the country's naval exercises, Iran may have felt they were in a pretty strong position, flexing their muscles while engaging in military exercises where ground to air missiles were being launched.
Iran gave the Americans their marching orders by way of threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, while the 'world's policemen' kept an ever so watchful eye on the area on their Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis.
The Americans and the European Union responded with their own threats - the threat of more damaging oil embargos, which would mean a significant increase in the West's financial war on Tehran at a time of heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Iran responded to U.S. measures against Iran's central bank - with the value of the Iranian rial taking a plunge in recent days - with defiance saying their actions were tantamount to "an economic war."
A total oil embargo could quite easily be on the cards which would inflame an already inflamable situation. Representatives from 27 countries of the EU were in heavy discussions looking for an agreement on banning the purchase of Iranian oil.
For all the incalculable challenges facing Israel over the past decade it is the potential threat from a nuclear-armed Iran that has preoccupied the country's military plotters and planners.
It is this aim that has guided the development of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) over recent years. The IAF has purchased 125 advanced F-15I and F-16I warplanes, equipped with Israeli avionics and additional fuel tanks - tailor-made for long-range strike missions.
In addition, Israel has bought specialised bunker-busting munitions; developed large, long-endurance, unmanned aircraft; and much of its training has focused on long-range missions. Historically, Israel has a track-record of pre-emptive strikes against nuclear targets in the region. For a start it is a very long way from Israel to Iran. As a rough estimate many of the potential targets are some 1,500km (930 miles) to 1,800km (1,120 miles) from Israeli bases. Israeli warplanes have to get to Iran and, equally important, get back.In June 1981, Israeli jets bombed the Osirak reactor near the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
More recently, in September 2007, Israeli warplanes attacked a facility in Syria that Israel, the US and many experts believed was a nuclear reactor under construction.
However, a potential strike against Iran would be nothing like the attacks in Iraq and Syria. These were both against single targets, located above ground, and came literally out of the blue. As is the Israeli way.
An Israeli attempt to severely damage Iran's nuclear programme would have to cope with a variety of problems, including range, the multiplicity of targets, and the nature of those targets. Not to mention Iran's early warning system and it's array of missile defences.
Many of these problems are daunting in themselves, but when put together, they only compound the difficulties facing Israeli military planners. How to get there? Not forgetting how to get back, Iran may be having economic problems but it has a formidable group of fighter planes. But many are older types and Israel fighter jets would outnumber them two to one.
Iran would rely on ground to air missiles to defend it's many nuclear sites, some which are scattered in far away places, under a mountain and one buried well underground, bunker style. Without American support any attack might well fail and with an election coming up, no USA President or Presidential candidate would be dumb enough to give open support.
In this particular case, Israeli patience may just prove virtuous.
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